Perez's cloudy future as a closer

Every fantasy owner wants to be first in line for that closer of the future, but it so rarely happens the easy way. What we end up seeing happen is that most closers of the future become short-term disappointments, overdrafted and traded for in fantasy leagues, while veterans like Kevin Gregg show up in Florida at the right place and the right time, and change their career path forever. I think I can name more journeyman types who pitched well and lucked into a closer job, like Scott Downs and Antonio Alfonseca, than kids who were high picks and became the next Gregg Olson (see Orioles, circa 1989).

For Chris Perez, who was traded this week from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Cleveland Indians, the initial reaction I saw from others was that Perez became more in demand in fantasy from this deal. My reaction was quite the opposite.

I think this is a trick for fantasy owners, and while the Indians won't regret the deal, they didn't help themselves much. I trust the Cardinals' leadership when it comes to decision-making, I really do. It's like how the Braves used to be when Leo Mazzone was handling the pitchers. Jose Capellan was supposed to be good. When the Braves gave up on him, that was a sign for me to do the same. Remember the Aussie Damian Moss? Young lefty, 26 years old -- they moved him quickly for a reason. Same thing, to a degree, with Denny Neagle, Kevin Millwood and Bruce Chen. It's like the Braves just knew. Same with some of those young hitters as well, like Andy Marte and Wilson Betemit, but I digress. Anyway, I trust Dave Duncan just as I did Mazzone. I mean, Jeff Weaver started five playoff games for the Cardinals in 2006, including two in the World Series. Jeff Weaver!

Many see the Cardinals' dealing their 2006 first-round pick as a sign of desperation for offensive help, and the Indians as getting a sweet deal for a future closer. I see a standard, ordinary middle reliever getting sent out of town while his value is still relatively high, because he has the arm but lacks something else to be a reliable closer. Relief pitchers grow on trees (not literally), but for every Perez who is drafted and groomed as a closer, there is someone like Ryan Franklin, for example, getting more saves when there's nothing in his past or in his current makeup that says he should. The Cardinals were so eager to move Perez that the rumors had been flying for months, even though they know Franklin isn't their future closer and Jason Motte could very well not be that future guy. I'm trusting the Cardinals on this one. They know something, or they think Perez can easily be replaced in the sixth and seventh innings by someone on the trade market like Danys Baez. I agree.

The problem for fantasy owners is that they always think they know something about that next big closer, but it so rarely pans out. Baseball's amateur draft plays a significant role in leading fantasy owners on. When Geoff Geary gets dealt, nobody bats an eyelash because he was a 15th-round pick and unspectacular in the minors. Perez was a first-round pick. (To be fair, it was in the sandwich round between the first and second rounds, the No. 42 overall pick.) He was a college closer, a big, intimidating right-hander with strikeout stuff. Hey, it's not that I think Perez will stink in Cleveland, but why do you think saves are automatic here?

Perez should not instantly jump onto your list of relievers about to become closers. In fact, I think he was better off in St. Louis if you wanted the potential for saves. Kerry Wood has a two-year contract for the Tribe, not a one-year deal, and there is no guarantee he gets traded as easily as Mark DeRosa. Perez might have to wait until 2011. Plus, do we just assume Perez is next in line in Cleveland? There doesn't seem to be much in his way currently, but Matt Herges has pitched well, Rafael Betancourt should be back soon, and Perez's first impression with his new team ended with four runs crossing the plate and only two outs getting registered. Major league teams don't just give closer roles to the guy who throws the hardest, even if they're in the midst of a horribly disappointing season that might result in 100 losses.

A year ago, I thought the Indians did well to get Jonathan Meloan from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake trade. Time might tell differently, but Meloan has been pounded at Triple-A since that deal. Perez might have better stuff, and won't get yo-yoed around from starting and relieving, but there are no guarantees here. I'd look elsewhere for saves this season, and for a middle reliever who can help your staff.



(espn.com)