Lamar Miller, Third-Ranked Running Back in 2012 Draft

Matt Waldman is the author of The Rookie Scouting Portfolio, a testament to his obsession with film analysis, now available for download. Examples of his work can be found at his blog. He is helping The Fifth Down rank skill position players before the draft:

3.     Lamar Miller, running back, Miami (5-10, 212)
Lamar Miller is a potential Pro Bowl back. He’s at the sweet spot in terms of height, weight, speed and acceleration. He runs with patience and balance, and he protects the ball. He understands how to stay close to his blocks until an opening develops, and like Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James before him, he knows how to shorten his steps in traffic until he finds a cutback lane or alternate crease when the primary hole does not open.

He runs with good balance and power between the tackles. He can run through contact, and he has good enough footwork to prevent defenders from getting angles on him. He bends runs with good speed, and he has shown some skill to pick and slide toward creases or press a crease and cut back. He keeps his legs moving after contact, and his pad level is consistently low enough that he bounces off hits and maximizes his output on carries. He knows how to minimize his surface area in the hole and still get downhill fast.

Miller is fast, and his burst is Pro Bowl-caliber; when given a hole, he can accelerate past all three levels of a defense and turn a 10-yard gain into a 40-yard touchdown. There is little doubt that Miller has physical talent, but there are plays in which he seems to go out of bounds too willingly, even when time is not a factor.

Miller catches the ball as well as any back in this class. He snares passes, and he repeatedly demonstrated the ability to use his body control and concentration to help catch a ball. I saw him make an acrobatic catch that was over 25 yards from release point to reception, a play that many college wide receivers cannot make.

Miller’s effort as a blocker is not good enough. He will deliver a punch, and he has skill at getting the correct angle to make a block. But he does not sustain the contact and work hard enough to maintain that position. Miller diagnoses blocks effectively, but he has to do better with his cut blocking. He drops his head too early. As a run blocker, he seems more worried about getting hit from behind or hurt in the act of blocking than helping his teammates make plays.

I can see the Portis comparisons because Miller has game-breaking speed, explosive lateral agility and enough downhill power and balance to generate big plays in multiple ways. The difference is that Miller makes running the football look easier than Portis did in college, and I think it might be part of the perception that his effort isn’t always there when in fact, he’s just more graceful than people realize.

Purely on ability, he could start for an N.F.L. team today. The key will be how well he transitions from a college campus to professional life.


(nytimes.com)